Executive Summary & Main Facts
New Hampshire voters went to the polls on Tuesday, formalizing a momentous fall matchup for an open U.S. Senate seat that could ultimately decide the balance of power in Washington. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and Republican former Sen. John E. Sununu secured decisive victories in their respective primary contests, setting the stage for one of the most closely watched and fiercely contested Senate battles in the nation.
The open seat comes following the planned retirement of veteran Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, whose departure leaves a critical vacancy in a state that has leaned Democratic in recent federal elections but remains fiercely independent. Senate Republicans view New Hampshire as a top-tier pick-up opportunity, while Democrats are determined to hold the line in the Granite State to defend their narrow path to a Senate majority.
Concurrently, high-stakes primary contests unfolded in the state’s two congressional districts:
- 1st Congressional District: In the battleground seat vacated by Pappas, former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen—daughter of the retiring senator—clinched a hard-fought victory in a crowded Democratic primary. On the Republican side, car dealership owner Anthony DiLorenzo, backed by former President Donald Trump, decisively won his primary, establishing a high-profile general election clash in a historically volatile swing district.
- 2nd Congressional District: Freshman Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander comfortably secured her party’s nomination for re-election against state Rep. Paige Beauchemin. Goodlander will face Republican nominee Lily Tang Williams in a rematch of their 2024 contest.
With the primary battles officially settled, both national party committees and independent expenditure groups are preparing to pour tens of millions of dollars into New Hampshire, transforming the Granite State into a central battleground for control of Congress this fall.
Chronology & Campaign Context
The stage for Tuesday’s high-stakes primary was set when longtime Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced she would not seek re-election, creating the state’s first open Senate seat in years. Her retirement prompted an immediate reshuffling of New Hampshire’s political landscape, igniting interest across both parties.
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| CHRONOLOGY OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATE RACE |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| 2008 | Jeanne Shaheen defeats incumbent Sen. John E. Sununu. |
| October 2025 | Sununu officially enters the Senate race following GOP recruitment.|
| August 2026 | Nonpartisan handicapper Inside Elections shifts race from |
| | "Tilt Democratic" to "Toss-up" amid tightening polls. |
| September 2026 | Pappas and Sununu win their respective party primaries, |
| | setting up the fall general election matchup. |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+The Republican Nomination
Following Shaheen’s retirement announcement, national Republican strategists, led by Senate GOP leadership and recruitment teams, sought a candidate with high name recognition capable of making the state competitive. While initial interest focused on former four-term Gov. Chris Sununu, it was his brother, former Sen. John E. Sununu, who ultimately entered the primary race in late October 2025.
Sununu’s bid represents an effort at a political comeback 18 years after he was ousted from the Senate in 2008 by Jeanne Shaheen. Despite facing primary competition from former Massachusetts Sen. Scott P. Brown—who previously ran for Senate in New Hampshire in 2014—Sununu quickly coalesced institutional support, earned the endorsement of Donald Trump, and established a commanding lead in primary polling.
The Democratic Nomination
On the Democratic side, four-term Rep. Chris Pappas emerged early as the party favorite due to his strong electoral track record in the competitive 1st Congressional District and deep roots as a local small-business owner. However, Pappas faced a primary challenge from biochemist Karishma Manzur, who ran an energetic outsider campaign from the left, attempting to mobilize progressive voters and challenging Pappas on policy and party strategy.
Despite late polling showing a narrowing margin, Pappas leveraged a substantial fundraising advantage, strong organizational support, and widespread name recognition to lock down the nomination.
Dynamic Shifts
As the primary election neared, nonpartisan political analysts began taking note of the tightening prospective general election matchup between Pappas and Sununu. Just last week, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales officially changed its race rating from "Tilt Democratic" to "Toss-up," signaling that New Hampshire had elevated into the top tier of national battlegrounds.
Supporting Data & Detailed Election Figures
Election results reported by The Associated Press demonstrate decisive victories in the marquee races, alongside tight finishes in key congressional primaries.
====================================================================================
ELECTION RESULTS BREAKDOWN: NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARIES
====================================================================================
U.S. SENATE PRIMARIES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Party Candidate Votes / Share (%) Status
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Democratic Chris Pappas 65% WINNER
Democratic Karishma Manzur 33% Defeated
(Reporting: >80% of estimated vote counted)
Republican John E. Sununu 68% WINNER
Republican Scott P. Brown 27% Defeated
(Reporting: ~80% of estimated vote counted)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES - DISTRICT 1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Party Candidate Votes / Share (%) Status
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Democratic Stefany Shaheen 37% WINNER
Democratic Maura Sullivan 35% Defeated
(Reporting: ~90% of estimated vote counted)
Republican Anthony DiLorenzo 51% WINNER
Republican Hollie Noveletsky 26% Defeated
(Reporting: ~85% of estimated vote counted)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES - DISTRICT 2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Party Candidate Votes / Share (%) Status
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Democratic Maggie Goodlander (i) Defeated opponent WINNER
Democratic Paige Beauchemin Defeated
Republican Lily Tang Williams Defeated field WINNER
====================================================================================Senate Results Analysis
- Democratic Primary: With more than 80 percent of votes counted, Pappas led Manzur 65 percent to 33 percent, clearing the way for his statewide campaign.
- Republican Primary: With close to 80 percent of the estimated vote counted, Sununu dominated the field with 68 percent against Scott P. Brown’s 27 percent.
House District 1 Results Analysis
vacated by Pappas to run for Senate, the 1st Congressional District primary proved to be the night’s most contested primary:
- Democratic Primary: Former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen edged out Marine Corps veteran and former Obama administration official Maura Sullivan in a tight finish. With nearly 90 percent of votes tallied early Wednesday morning, Shaheen led Sullivan 37 percent to 35 percent. Sullivan was seeking the seat after previously finishing as the runner-up to Pappas in the 2018 primary.
- Republican Primary: Automotive businessman Anthony DiLorenzo powered past businesswoman Hollie Noveletsky, taking 51 percent to her 26 percent with 85 percent of votes reported. DiLorenzo heavily self-funded his effort, injecting $1.8 million of his own capital via personal loans into his campaign through mid-August, while also securing crucial endorsements from Donald Trump and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).
House District 2 Results Analysis
In the state’s western and northern congressional district, freshman Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander easily secured her party’s nomination over state Rep. Paige Beauchemin. On the Republican side, conservative activist Lily Tang Williams captured the nomination for her third consecutive attempt, establishing a rematch of the 2024 contest.
Official Responses & Candidate Reactions
Following the call of the races on Tuesday night, candidates and national party officials launched immediate opening salvos for the general election, laying out the key themes and contrast points that will define the coming weeks.
The Sununu Campaign & GOP Strategy
In a statement issued late Tuesday evening, Sununu framed his candidacy around economic stability and public service, emphasizing his intention to focus on everyday issues affecting Granite Staters:
"As Senator, I’ll have just one job: stand up for the people of New Hampshire every single day. We will keep listening, keep working, and stay laser-focused on the economy, jobs, and making life more affordable."
— John E. Sununu, Republican Senate Nominee
National Republican leadership immediately signaled that New Hampshire is central to their strategy to maintain or expand their Senate footprint. Alex Latcham, Executive Director of the Republican super PAC Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), underscored the committee’s commitment to the state:
"After personally recruiting Sununu to run, Leader John Thune and Senate Republicans have expanded the map and are poised to flip the Granite State. From now until November, SLF will spend every day highlighting John E. Sununu’s positive vision for New Hampshire while exposing the corruption, self-dealing, and radical record of Washington insider Chris Pappas."
— Alex Latcham, Executive Director, Senate Leadership Fund
The Pappas Campaign & Democratic Strategy
Pappas and Democratic leaders countered by attacking Sununu’s post-Senate career, attempting to brand the former senator as a Washington insider who leveraged his previous public service for private gain. Pappas’s campaign highlighted his deep roots in the state, including his family’s stewardship of the iconic Puritan Backroom restaurant in Manchester—a famed political stop credited with inventing the chicken tender.
In a joint statement, Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer and New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), drew a sharp line between the two candidates:
"Chris Pappas is a small business owner and descendant of Greek immigrants who is grounded in the values, people, and places of New Hampshire. John Sununu went to Washington almost thirty years ago and voted to serve the interests of Wall Street, Big Oil, and Big Pharma in the Senate, then sold out to make millions off those same industries."
— Sens. Chuck Schumer & Kirsten Gillibrand, Joint Statement
If victorious in November, Pappas would make history as the first openly gay man elected to serve in the United States Senate.
Strategic Implications for Control of Congress
The outcomes of Tuesday’s primaries carry profound consequences for the macro-political map heading into the final stretch of the election cycle.
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| CONTEXTUAL COMPETITIVE RATINGS (INSIDE ELECTIONS) |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Race | Updated Rating |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| New Hampshire U.S. Senate Seat | Toss-up (Shifted from Tilt Democratic) |
| U.S. House New Hampshire Dist. 1 | Lean Democratic |
| U.S. House New Hampshire Dist. 2 | Likely Democratic |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+The National Senate Landscape
Democrats currently face a challenging national Senate landscape where they are defending competitive seats in swing states while attempting to make gains in red-leaning territory like Ohio, Iowa, and Alaska. To flip the chamber or secure a working majority, Democrats need a net gain of four seats.
Conversely, for Republicans, winning New Hampshire would represent an offensive victory that could neutralize potential losses elsewhere. Because Republicans haven’t won a U.S. Senate race in New Hampshire since 2010, a victory by Sununu would mark a major geographic breakthrough for the GOP in New England.
The Battle of Political Dynasties and Identity
The general election contest in New Hampshire presents a fascinating study in state political dynamics:
- Family Legacy vs. Grassroots Roots: Sununu comes from New Hampshire’s prominent political family; his father, John H. Sununu, served as governor and White House Chief of Staff to President George H.W. Bush, while his brother Chris served four terms as governor through 2024. Democrats plan to frame Sununu’s deep pedigree and subsequent lobbying career as out of touch with everyday voters.
- District 1 Family Ties: A similar dynamic is emerging in the 1st Congressional District, where Stefany Shaheen’s nomination carries forward her mother’s political legacy. Shaheen must now unify a primary field that witnessed contentious debates over fundraising and political influence in its closing weeks.
- Self-Funding vs. Grassroots: Shaheen will face Anthony DiLorenzo, whose significant self-funding ability and endorsement from Donald Trump allow Republicans to wage a fully-resourced campaign in a seat that historically flipped frequently between parties prior to 2018.
Conclusion: A Key General Election Battleground
With primary night now in the books, New Hampshire transitions into a high-octane battleground. The Senate matchup between Chris Pappas and John E. Sununu, alongside a fiercely contested fight in the 1st Congressional District, ensures that the Granite State will remain a focal point of national political strategy, advertising, and turnout efforts right up until Election Day.
