By Daniela Altimari and Andrew Menezes
As the United States prepares to mark its semiquincentennial, the nation finds itself in a profound state of introspection, grappling with deep-seated divisions and a pervasive sense of disillusionment. Far from a unified celebration, the 250th anniversary of American independence is overshadowed by widespread skepticism about the country’s direction, a marked decline in national pride, and a political landscape fractured by internal strife.
Recent polling data paints a stark picture of the national mood. A Gallup poll reveals that "American Pride Falls to 25-Year Record Low," a sentiment echoed by an NPR/PBS News/Marist survey finding that eight in 10 Americans believe the U.S. has strayed from its founding principles. Adding to this somber assessment, an AP/NORC poll released last month indicated that just a third of the public still believes in the American Dream. These figures collectively suggest a populace wrestling with its identity and its future, questioning the very tenets that have historically defined the nation.
Even the most iconic symbols of American celebration have been marred by controversy and disarray. The Reflecting Pool in Washington, intended to be a centerpiece of the anniversary festivities, has been plagued by peeling paint and unsightly algae blooms, a visible metaphor for deeper societal issues. Concurrently, the much-touted Great American State Fair on the National Mall, envisioned as a grand spectacle, has been widely criticized for poor turnout and numerous empty exhibition booths. This underwhelming performance has spawned a torrent of critical media analyses, with outlets like The Atlantic, New York Magazine, USA Today, and Washingtonian publishing pieces dissecting its failures and questioning its purpose.
Further exacerbating the climate of division, President Donald Trump, known for his polarizing rhetoric, is scheduled to deliver a highly anticipated address on the Mall this Saturday. Observers across the political spectrum fear that rather than fostering unity, his remarks could further inflame the existing rifts, deepening the chasm between opposing factions at a moment when national cohesion is most needed.
The Fractured Political Landscape
Beyond the traditional Republican-Democratic binary, both major parties are grappling with profound internal fissures that complicate governance and hinder progress. The political wilderness that Democrats entered after their humbling losses in 2024 continues to be a battleground, with rival factions from the left and center engaged in fierce ideological and strategic clashes. The anger directed at incumbent figures, including Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), remains palpable, reflecting a broader dissatisfaction with established leadership and a hunger for new directions.
Republicans, despite holding a trifecta of power across the federal government, have struggled to advance their legislative agenda through Congress. This gridlock underscores the challenges of governing even with a theoretical mandate, highlighting the internal divisions that persist within the GOP. President Trump, who has meticulously reshaped the party in his own image, has simultaneously seen his job approval numbers slide over the past year. As his term approaches its conclusion in January 2029, the question of who will inherit the mantle of party leadership and guide its future remains deeply uncertain, signaling a potentially turbulent transition period.
Semiquincentennial in the Campaign Spotlight
Despite the profound national introspection surrounding the 250th anniversary, the milestone has, surprisingly, not yet found its way into a significant number of campaign advertisements. Candidates, it seems, are largely opting for more conventional campaign themes, though subtle allusions are beginning to emerge.
Republican Brinker Harding, an Omaha City Council member vying for a crucial Nebraska swing district, incorporated the anniversary’s spirit into his general election launch video. He provocatively pondered what the Founding Fathers might make of modern political realities: entrenched members of Congress, congressional stock trades, and recurrent government shutdowns. This approach leverages the historical moment to critique contemporary governance, aligning with an anti-establishment narrative.
On the Democratic side, JoAnna Mendoza, a Marine veteran seeking a battleground House seat in Arizona, struck a more optimistic and unifying chord. Her ad, showcasing fellow veterans, featured the poignant line, "America, we serve for you," set against the backdrop of "America the Beautiful." This message taps into traditional patriotic themes, emphasizing service and national pride, a counter-narrative to the prevailing sense of disillusionment.
Starting Gate: Key Electoral Developments
The current election cycle has already delivered several significant outcomes and shed light on emerging trends, particularly the diminishing power of incumbency and the rising influence of progressive movements.
The Fading Edge of Incumbency
Colorado Democrat Diana DeGette, a 15-term House incumbent, had long relied on her extensive experience in Congress as a bedrock for her political career. However, in a stunning upset that underscored the shifting political currents, she lost her primary to Melat Kiros, a 29-year-old democratic socialist making her inaugural bid for elective office. DeGette’s defeat is not an isolated incident; she is one of several House Democrats to fall short this year, and at least a dozen other long-established Democrats in seemingly safe seats are now confronting serious intraparty threats in the weeks ahead. This trend suggests a growing appetite within the Democratic base for fresh faces and more progressive policies, challenging the traditional advantages of seniority.
Rocky Mountain Rumble: Colorado’s Progressive Wave
DeGette’s loss was part of a broader "Rocky Mountain Rumble" in Colorado, indicating a significant progressive shift within the state’s Democratic Party. Senator Michael Bennet also faced a primary defeat, losing his bid for governor to State Attorney General Phil Weiser. In another key contest, Manny Rutinel, a more progressive candidate for the battleground 8th District, comfortably secured the Democratic nomination. He is now set to challenge the vulnerable Republican Rep. Gabe Evans, signaling a potentially transformative shift in Colorado’s political landscape towards a more left-leaning representation.
SCOTUS Rush: Campaign Finance and Balloting Impacts
The Supreme Court’s term concluded with a flurry of opinions, two of which carry major implications for campaigns and electoral processes, as reported by our colleague Michael Macagnone. In a landmark decision, the court overturned a key campaign finance restriction, effectively clearing the way for political parties nationwide to spend unlimited amounts on behalf of candidates in federal elections. This ruling is expected to significantly alter the flow of money in politics, potentially amplifying the influence of party committees.
In a separate but equally impactful decision, the court upheld a Mississippi state law that permits election officials to count mail ballots postmarked by Election Day but arriving up to five days later. This ruling, which turned aside a challenge from Republicans, has broad implications for election administration, validating similar laws in more than two dozen states and potentially extending the period for vote tabulation.
Making History in Louisiana
In Louisiana, Rep. Julia Letlow is poised to make history as the first Republican woman elected to the Senate from the state. She secured a decisive victory in a weekend primary runoff, triumphing over state Treasurer John Fleming. This win came after incumbent GOP Senator Bill Cassidy was eliminated in the initial round of voting, finishing third behind Letlow and Fleming, underscoring a significant shift in the state’s Republican primary electorate.
A Congressman Returns
New Jersey Rep. Thomas H. Kean Jr. returned to Washington this week after an almost four-month-long absence. He publicly disclosed that his absence was due to seeking treatment for depression, a rare and significant public acknowledgment of mental health struggles among elected officials. Our colleague Nina Heller provided more details on his return and the broader implications for discussions around mental health in public life.
ICYMI: Endorsements, Conventions, and Redistricting
Recent weeks have seen a flurry of political activity, from crucial endorsements shaping competitive races to significant party announcements and legal decisions impacting future electoral maps.
House Endorsements Heat Up
On the House endorsement front, Maggie’s List, a prominent organization dedicated to electing Republican women, has thrown its support behind Bea Valenti. Valenti, a former White House and congressional aide, is challenging Democrat Kathy Castor in Florida’s redrawn 14th District, a race that could prove pivotal. Meanwhile, BOLD PAC, the campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, has endorsed former Nevada Assembly Majority Leader Teresa Benitez-Thompson in the state’s open 2nd District, signaling a strategic effort to bolster Hispanic representation. Adding to the momentum, Stop Gun Violence, a gun owner- and sportsman-led gun violence prevention group, announced a slate of Democratic House endorsements, emphasizing their commitment to responsible gun ownership and public safety.
Senate Endorsements: Key Battles Take Shape
In the Senate races, endorsements are crystallizing the battle lines. Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey has publicly backed Democratic Rep. Angie Craig for Minnesota’s open Senate seat, a significant boost for her campaign. Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders has lent his considerable progressive weight to Democratic Sen. Edward J. Markey for reelection in Massachusetts, reinforcing the incumbent’s left-leaning credentials.
Perhaps most contentious is the fight for Michigan’s open Senate seat, where the Democratic primary is a three-way battle for key endorsements. The Detroit Free Press Editorial Board has endorsed State Sen. Mallory McMorrow, while The Detroit News Editorial Board has thrown its support behind Rep. Haley Stevens. In a move that highlights the progressive wing’s influence, New York Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has endorsed former local public health director Abdul El-Sayed, signaling a strong ideological alignment.
Republicans Head to the Big D
President Trump announced on his Truth Social platform that Republicans will gather in Dallas on September 9-10 for their first-ever midterm convention. Trump proclaimed it "will be a RALLY like none other!" This unconventional midterm gathering underscores the party’s continued reliance on the former president’s rallying power and its strategic focus on energizing the base ahead of the critical fall elections.
Colorado Redistricting Blow for Democrats
Democratic efforts to redraw Colorado’s congressional map for the 2028 and 2030 elections suffered a significant setback. The state Supreme Court unanimously ruled that a series of redistricting-related ballot measures violated the state constitution. This decision represents a blow to Democrats who had hoped to cement their electoral advantages through favorable map configurations, leaving the future of the state’s congressional districts in a state of flux.
New Mexico’s Lieutenant Governor Search
Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, the Democratic nominee for New Mexico governor, has endorsed State Public Lands Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard as her running mate. This follows Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver’s withdrawal from the lieutenant governor nomination due to health reasons after winning the June 2 primary. The State Central Committee of the New Mexico Democratic Party is scheduled to meet on July 25 to vote on Haaland’s pick, as reported by Source NM, highlighting the complexities of ticket formation.
Congressional Member Eyes Mayoral Race
Illinois Democratic Rep. Mike Quigley launched his campaign for Chicago mayor over the weekend, joining a growing field for the February 2027 race to unseat incumbent Brandon Johnson. Quigley’s decision to seek the city’s top office while also pursuing reelection to his Chicago-area House seat this fall underscores the dynamic and often overlapping ambitions of political figures.
Nathan’s Notes: The Challenge of Going Home
Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales observes that 2026 has proven to be a particularly challenging year for members of Congress aspiring to win statewide primary bids for new roles. These primaries, he notes, merely serve as opening acts for a series of competitive gubernatorial elections this fall, where the fate of many current and former congressional members will be decided.
Currently, Republicans hold a slight edge in gubernatorial offices, with 26 governors compared to 24 Democrats. However, according to Nathan, Democrats appear more likely to expand their gubernatorial roster this year, suggesting a potential shift in state-level power dynamics.
The data supports the notion of a difficult cycle for congressional incumbents seeking higher office. Only eight sitting members of Congress have successfully navigated the cycle’s anti-Washington sentiment to win statewide primary bids for new roles. In stark contrast, a significant 11 members have lost their statewide primaries for other offices this year, reflecting a national mood that often favors outsiders or those perceived as less entrenched.
Of the seven incumbents who have competed in primaries for governor so far, a mere two have been successful: Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey and Republican Tommy Tuberville of Alabama. Sherrill went on to win New Jersey’s general election last year, and Tuberville is considered the prohibitive favorite to be elected Alabama’s next governor.
Similarly, among the 11 House members running for the Senate, six have been successful in their primaries to date, all on the Republican side. The most recent success story is Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow, who finished ahead of two opponents with prior statewide success: state Treasurer John Fleming and incumbent Bill Cassidy.
Looking ahead to the remaining primaries this year, 14 members—six Democrats and eight Republicans—are vying for new statewide positions. This includes two Democrats running for governor and four for the Senate. On the Republican side, seven members are running for governor, and Wyoming’s at-large House member, Harriet M. Hageman, is seeking to switch chambers. The coming months will reveal whether the trend of challenging incumbents continues or if some manage to defy the current political headwinds.
– By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly
What We’re Reading: Deeper Dives into Political Shifts
The national political conversation is further illuminated by several key analyses:
- From Red to Red: The Wall Street Journal provides a detailed examination of Colorado’s remarkable political transformation, tracing its evolution from a deeply Republican state to one that has increasingly embraced democratic socialists running for Congress. This shift offers a powerful case study in the changing demographics and ideological currents shaping American politics.
- Tech Influencer: The Associated Press profiles celebrity tech journalist and podcaster Kara Swisher, who, with her unparalleled access to figures like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg, is now focusing her influential gaze on the 2028 election. Her pivot signifies the growing intersection of tech, media, and political discourse.
- There’s Always a Tweet: Semafor reports on Sunrise Movement co-founder William Lawrence, the latest progressive House candidate to face scrutiny over resurfaced, previously deleted tweets. Lawrence, engaged in a competitive Democratic primary in Michigan, acknowledges that some of those posts are "out of step with what I believe now," highlighting the persistent challenge for candidates navigating their digital pasts.
- Dusting Off the Old Playbook: NOTUS delves into how Republicans are attempting to replicate President Trump’s successful 2024 turnout operation to safeguard their majorities in Congress this fall. This analysis provides insight into the strategic thinking and ground game operations that will be crucial in the upcoming midterms.
Key Race: #MO01 – A Progressive Rematch with National Implications
The August 4 primary in Missouri’s 1st Congressional District is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched races of the cycle, primarily a rematch between incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell and former Rep. Cori Bush. This contest, featuring five Democratic candidates, is a microcosm of the broader ideological battles reshaping the Democratic Party and the influence of external funding in primary elections.
Candidates and Context
Rep. Wesley Bell, the former St. Louis County prosecuting attorney, initially defeated Bush by a narrow 5-point margin in 2024. That race was heavily influenced by a deluge of anti-Bush advertisements funded by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s (AIPAC) super PAC and other pro-Israel groups, a pattern that appears set to repeat. Bush, a nurse and pastor, rose to prominence through her activism in the racial justice movement in Ferguson, Mo., following the killing of Black teenager Michael Brown in 2014.
Why It Matters
The 2024 1st District Democratic primary served as a crucial precursor to many of the themes now dominating this year’s midterms. It showcased the intense battle between progressives and moderates within the Democratic Party, the significant spending power of pro-Israel super PACs in primary contests, and the rising clout of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) in endorsing and mobilizing for candidates. This rematch will provide further insights into these ongoing trends.
Cash Dash and Outside Influence
Second-quarter campaign finance reports, due July 15, will offer a clearer picture, but early indications suggest a significant financial disparity. At the end of the first quarter, Cori Bush had a negative balance in her account, while Bell ended March with a robust $1.2 million on hand. Crucially, outside money is once again poised to play an outsized role. The AIPAC-affiliated super PAC United Democracy Project has already made more than $400,000 in ad reservations in its explicit quest to defend Bell, as reported by Axios, signaling a major investment in the race’s outcome.
Backers and Battle Lines
Bush has garnered strong support from progressive organizations, including Justice Democrats and the St. Louis chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America. Her endorsements also include Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders and former New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman, a fellow democratic socialist who was himself defeated in a 2024 primary, further cementing her progressive bona fides.
As the incumbent, Bell benefits from the backing of House Democratic leaders, including Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), positioning him as the establishment choice. He has also secured the support of several prominent labor unions, including the Missouri AFL-CIO, indicating a broad coalition.
Competing Narratives
Bell frames himself as a pragmatic progressive fighter, emphasizing his record of delivering federal funding for infrastructure and public safety projects, as well as securing disaster relief following a string of devastating tornadoes last year. His narrative focuses on tangible results and effective governance.
Bush, conversely, centers her campaign on issues of affordability, public health, and a strong stance against military aid and arms transfers to Israel. Her platform resonates with the progressive movement’s calls for systemic change and a reorientation of national priorities.
Terrain and Wild Card
The 1st District is a deep-blue seat centered on St. Louis. Following mid-decade redistricting, it stands as the only Democratic-leaning district in Missouri, making the primary effectively the general election.
A significant "wild card" in this race is Bush’s potential return to Congress. When she first arrived in the House in 2021, Bush joined the progressive "squad," a coterie that included Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ayanna S. Pressley of Massachusetts, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan. Should she return to the chamber in 2027, Bush would find a larger block of leftist colleagues, bolstered by recent wins by DSA-backed candidates in New York and Colorado, potentially amplifying the influence of the progressive wing within the House Democratic Caucus.
Coming Up: Speeches to Define the Divide
On the eve of the nation’s 250th birthday, New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani is slated to deliver what is being billed as a major speech Friday in front of the George Washington desk at City Hall. He is expected to be surrounded by naturalized citizens, signaling a message that likely emphasizes inclusivity and the ongoing journey of American identity. Just hours later, President Trump is scheduled to deliver his America 250 address at South Dakota’s Mount Rushmore. These two speeches, delivered by figures with vastly different political ideologies and approaches to national identity, are poised to further highlight the deep philosophical divides that characterize America at its quarter-millennium mark.
Photo Finish
The U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds F-16s practice over Washington on Thursday for their July 4 demonstration to honor the nation’s military. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)
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